Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kolubara vs Dubočica — Prva Liga 2018

Kolubara
Kolubara
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dubočica
Dubočica
9/23/2020Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 7SRC Kolubara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kolubara51%
×Draw27%
Dubočica22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolubara
1.45
Dubočica
0.84

Kolubara creates 73% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 73 away

creates per match

Kolubara
1.39
Dubočica
0.79

allows per match

Kolubara
0.90
Dubočica
1.51

finishing

Kolubara+0.00on par
Dubočica+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolubara ↓

Dubočica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kolubara or draw
78%
Kolubara or Dubočica
73%
Draw or Dubočica
49%

Winning margin

Kolubara wins by 2+
26%
Dubočica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kolubara 1+ goals
77%
Kolubara 2+ goals
42%
Kolubara 3+ goals
18%
Dubočica 1+ goals
57%
Dubočica 2+ goals
21%
Dubočica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kolubara (draw refunded)
70%
Dubočica (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolubara at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Dubočica away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolubara attack 1.39 + Dubočica defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.45

Dubočica attack 0.79 + Kolubara defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kolubara scores more
51%
level
27%
Dubočica scores more
22%

Kolubara at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kolubara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kolubara vs Dubočica

Kolubara beat Dubočica 1-0 in Prva Liga on September 23, 2020.

The match was played at SRC Kolubara in Lazarevac.