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Dubočica vs Kolubara — Prva Liga 2018

Dubočica
Dubočica
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Kolubara
Kolubara
3/29/2021Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 24Stadion Rosulja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Dubočica35%
×Draw28%
Kolubara37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubočica
1.15
Kolubara
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 50 away

creates per match

Dubočica
1.18
Kolubara
1.18

allows per match

Dubočica
1.19
Kolubara
1.12

finishing

Dubočica+0.00on par
Kolubara+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubočica ↓

Kolubara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dubočica or draw
63%
Dubočica or Kolubara
72%
Draw or Kolubara
65%

Winning margin

Dubočica wins by 2+
14%
Kolubara wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dubočica 1+ goals
68%
Dubočica 2+ goals
32%
Dubočica 3+ goals
11%
Kolubara 1+ goals
70%
Kolubara 2+ goals
33%
Kolubara 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dubočica (draw refunded)
49%
Kolubara (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubočica at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 74 matches

Kolubara away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubočica attack 1.18 + Kolubara defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Kolubara attack 1.18 + Dubočica defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dubočica scores more
35%
level
28%
Kolubara scores more
37%

Kolubara at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kolubara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dubočica vs Kolubara

Kolubara beat Dubočica 3-1 in Prva Liga on March 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Rosulja in Vlasotince.