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Kolos Kovalivka vs Karpaty — Premier League 2026

Kolos Kovalivka
Kolos Kovalivka
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Karpaty
Karpaty
N. Gagnidze 89'
Y. Kinareikin 55' (OG)
I. Krasniqi 9' (OG)
5/17/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Stadion Kolos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Kolos Kovalivka37%
×Draw27%
Karpaty36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolos Kovalivka
1.26
Karpaty
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Kolos Kovalivka
1.23
Karpaty
1.52

allows per match

Kolos Kovalivka
0.99
Karpaty
1.29

finishing

Kolos Kovalivka-0.36scores less
Karpaty-0.31scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolos Kovalivka ↓

Karpaty →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kolos Kovalivka or draw
64%
Kolos Kovalivka or Karpaty
73%
Draw or Karpaty
63%

Winning margin

Kolos Kovalivka wins by 2+
16%
Karpaty wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kolos Kovalivka 1+ goals
72%
Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals
36%
Kolos Kovalivka 3+ goals
13%
Karpaty 1+ goals
71%
Karpaty 2+ goals
36%
Karpaty 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kolos Kovalivka (draw refunded)
50%
Karpaty (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolos Kovalivka at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.99 · 15 matches

Karpaty away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.23 + Karpaty defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Karpaty attack 1.52 + Kolos Kovalivka defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kolos Kovalivka scores more
37%
level
27%
Karpaty scores more
36%

Kolos Kovalivka at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kolos Kovalivka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
V. VeletenKolos KovalivkaKolos Kovalivka · M
7.3

Match Events

9'
I. KrasniqiOwn goal
44'
Danyil Alefirenko
46'
M. Kovtaliuk← O. Sydorov
46'
Ș. Vlădoiu← Elias
46'
Y. Pidlepenets← Y. Kostenko
55'
Y. KinareikinOwn goal
64'
O. Fedor← A. Shakh
67'
Ilir Krasniqi
72'
I. Kvasnytsia← Bruninho
81'
Igor Neves← I. Krasnopir
85'
A. Husol← D. Alefirenko
85'
P. Orikhovskyi← A. Rrapaj
89'
N. Gagnidze↳ A. Tsurikov
90+4'
Vladyslav Veleten
90+3'
O. Bezruchuk← N. Gagnidze

Possession

45%Kolos

Shots

6Kolos

Pass accuracy

48%Kolos

Statistics

KolosKarpaty
Overview
45%Possession55%
6Total Shots9
0.62Expected Goals (xG)1.50
2Corners4
22Fouls12
Shots
6Total Shots9
4On Target2
1Off Target6
1Blocked1
5Inside Box4
1Outside Box5
Passing
45%Possession55%
324Total Passes357
249Accurate Passes292
77%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
22Fouls12
3Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Kolos Kovalivka vs Karpaty

Kolos Kovalivka beat Karpaty 2-1 in Premier League on May 17, 2025.

Goals: I. Krasniqi (9' o.g.), Y. Kinareikin (55' o.g.), N. Gagnidze (89').

Karpaty controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadion Kolos in Kovalivka.