Karpaty 1–0 Kolos Kovalivka: Result & Stats

Karpaty

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kolos Kovalivka

Bruninho 31'

11/22/2024

Premier League · Round 14Stadion Ukraina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Karpaty44%

×Draw25%

Kolos Kovalivka32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KarpatyExpected goals in this matchKolos Kovalivka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.31

Karpaty

1.58

Kolos Kovalivka

1.31

Karpaty creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

1.72

creates per match

1.26

1.35

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Karpaty

1.72

Kolos Kovalivka

1.26

allows per match

Karpaty

1.35

Kolos Kovalivka

1.45

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Karpaty-0.02on par

Kolos Kovalivka-0.03on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karpaty ↓

Kolos Kovalivka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Karpaty or draw

68%

Karpaty or Kolos Kovalivka

75%

Draw or Kolos Kovalivka

56%

Winning margin

Karpaty wins by 2+

22%

Kolos Kovalivka wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Karpaty 1+ goals

79%

Karpaty 2+ goals

47%

Karpaty 3+ goals

21%

Kolos Kovalivka 1+ goals

73%

Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals

38%

Kolos Kovalivka 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Karpaty (draw refunded)

58%

Kolos Kovalivka (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karpaty at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.35 · 10 matches

Kolos Kovalivka away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.45 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karpaty attack 1.72 + Kolos Kovalivka defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.58

Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.26 + Karpaty defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Karpaty scores more

44%

level

25%

Kolos Kovalivka scores more

32%

Karpaty at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Karpaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

22'

31'

39'

59'

A. Husol← D. Alefirenko

59'

M. Tretiakov← V. Veleten

72'

Y. Pidlepenets← Bruninho

72'

A. Shakh← Y. Kostenko

81'

B. Vekliak← V. Baboglo

82'

Stênio← O. Ocheretko

83'

D. Bezborodko← Diego Carioca

83'

G. Paulauskas← J. Bolívar

90'

V. Klymenko← A. Chachua

Karpaty4-1-4-1

Kolos4-3-3

8

▼

Veleten

11

▼

Bolívar

77

▼

Alefirenk

10

Orikhovsk

7

Demchenko

19

▼

9

5

16

32

31

35

11

47

4

▼

Baboglo

28

Polehenko

23

Álvarez

20

▼

Ocheretko

37

⚽

▼

Bruninho

8

A

▼

Chachua

26

▼

Kostenko

10

Neves

Manager: V. Lupashko

72'▲Y. Pidlepenets←▼Bruninho

72'▲A. Shakh←▼Y. Kostenko

81'▲B. Vekliak←▼V. Baboglo

82'▲Stênio←▼O. Ocheretko

90'▲V. Klymenko←▼A. Chachua

Karpaty substitutes

7Pidlepenets33Shakh22Vekliak43Stênio18Klymenko17Kuzyk41Domchak1Kinareikin9Tlumak16Riabov13Ustymenko44Sakiv

Manager: O. Pozdieiev

59'▲A. Husol←▼D. Alefirenko

59'▲M. Tretiakov←▼V. Veleten

83'▲D. Bezborodko←▼Diego Carioca

83'▲G. Paulauskas←▼J. Bolívar

Kolos Kovalivka substitutes

15Husol33Tretiakov22Bezborodko70Paulauskas23Mysak30Salabai1Horokh69Illin4Shershen6Burda47Denysenko27Luchkevych

Match Recap: Karpaty vs Kolos Kovalivka

Karpaty beat Kolos Kovalivka 1-0 in Premier League on November 22, 2024.

Goals: Bruninho (31').

The match was played at Stadion Ukraina in Lviv.

Karpaty vs Kolos Kovalivka — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Karpaty vs Kolos Kovalivka