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Kolos Kovalivka vs Dynamo Kyiv — Premier League 2019

Kolos Kovalivka
Kolos Kovalivka
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
12/1/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Stadion Kolos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Kolos Kovalivka21%
×Draw23%
Dynamo Kyiv56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolos Kovalivka
1.01
Dynamo Kyiv
1.83

Dynamo Kyiv creates 81% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kolos Kovalivka
1.34
Dynamo Kyiv
2.49

allows per match

Kolos Kovalivka
1.16
Dynamo Kyiv
0.67

finishing

Kolos Kovalivka-0.21scores less
Dynamo Kyiv+0.51scores more

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolos Kovalivka ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kolos Kovalivka or draw
44%
Kolos Kovalivka or Dynamo Kyiv
77%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
79%

Winning margin

Kolos Kovalivka wins by 2+
7%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Kolos Kovalivka 1+ goals
64%
Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals
27%
Kolos Kovalivka 3+ goals
8%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
84%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
54%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Kolos Kovalivka (draw refunded)
27%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolos Kovalivka at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.16 · 8 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 2.49, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.34 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.01

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.49 + Kolos Kovalivka defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kolos Kovalivka scores more
21%
level
23%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
56%

Dynamo Kyiv at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Kolos Kovalivka 1–1 Dynamo Kyiv

Kolos Kovalivka and Dynamo Kyiv drew 1-1 in Premier League on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kolos in Kovalivka.