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Dynamo Kyiv vs Kolos Kovalivka — Premier League 2019

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
5 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kolos Kovalivka
Kolos Kovalivka
5/5/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv57%
×Draw21%
Kolos Kovalivka21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
2.02
Kolos Kovalivka
1.15

Dynamo Kyiv creates 76% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
2.44
Kolos Kovalivka
1.44

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.86
Kolos Kovalivka
1.61

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv-0.64scores less
Kolos Kovalivka-0.11scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Kolos Kovalivka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
79%
Dynamo Kyiv or Kolos Kovalivka
79%
Draw or Kolos Kovalivka
43%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
34%
Kolos Kovalivka wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
87%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
60%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
33%
Kolos Kovalivka 1+ goals
68%
Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals
32%
Kolos Kovalivka 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
73%
Kolos Kovalivka (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.86 · 5 matches

Kolos Kovalivka away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.61 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 2.44 + Kolos Kovalivka defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.02

Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.44 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
57%
level
21%
Kolos Kovalivka scores more
21%

Dynamo Kyiv at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv vs Kolos Kovalivka

Dynamo Kyiv beat Kolos Kovalivka 5-0 in Premier League on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi in Kiev.