Kolomna 1–3 FK Spartak Tambov: Result & Stats

Kolomna

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

FK Spartak Tambov

6/10/2023

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 12Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Kolomna29%

×Draw24%

FK Spartak Tambov47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KolomnaExpected goals in this matchFK Spartak Tambov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.69

Kolomna

1.28

FK Spartak Tambov

1.69

FK Spartak Tambov creates 32% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 63 away

1.44

creates per match

1.41

1.98

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Kolomna

1.44

FK Spartak Tambov

1.41

allows per match

Kolomna

1.98

FK Spartak Tambov

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kolomna+0.00on par

FK Spartak Tambov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolomna ↓

FK Spartak Tambov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kolomna or draw

53%

Kolomna or FK Spartak Tambov

76%

Draw or FK Spartak Tambov

71%

Winning margin

Kolomna wins by 2+

12%

FK Spartak Tambov wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Kolomna 1+ goals

72%

Kolomna 2+ goals

37%

Kolomna 3+ goals

14%

FK Spartak Tambov 1+ goals

82%

FK Spartak Tambov 2+ goals

50%

FK Spartak Tambov 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Kolomna (draw refunded)

38%

FK Spartak Tambov (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolomna at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.98 · 54 matches

FK Spartak Tambov away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolomna attack 1.44 + FK Spartak Tambov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.28

FK Spartak Tambov attack 1.41 + Kolomna defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kolomna scores more

29%

level

24%

FK Spartak Tambov scores more

47%

FK Spartak Tambov at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FK Spartak Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff