FK Spartak Tambov 1–1 Kolomna: Result & Stats

FK Spartak Tambov

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kolomna

4/2/2023

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 1Stadion STC Tambov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

FK Spartak Tambov64%

×Draw21%

Kolomna16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Spartak TambovExpected goals in this matchKolomna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.90

FK Spartak Tambov

2.04

Kolomna

0.90

FK Spartak Tambov creates 127% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 55 away

1.47

creates per match

0.76

1.03

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

FK Spartak Tambov

1.47

Kolomna

0.76

allows per match

FK Spartak Tambov

1.03

Kolomna

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Spartak Tambov+0.00on par

Kolomna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Spartak Tambov ↓

Kolomna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FK Spartak Tambov or draw

84%

FK Spartak Tambov or Kolomna

79%

Draw or Kolomna

36%

Winning margin

FK Spartak Tambov wins by 2+

39%

Kolomna wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FK Spartak Tambov 1+ goals

87%

FK Spartak Tambov 2+ goals

60%

FK Spartak Tambov 3+ goals

33%

Kolomna 1+ goals

59%

Kolomna 2+ goals

23%

Kolomna 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FK Spartak Tambov (draw refunded)

80%

Kolomna (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Spartak Tambov at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Kolomna away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.62 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Spartak Tambov attack 1.47 + Kolomna defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.04

Kolomna attack 0.76 + FK Spartak Tambov defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FK Spartak Tambov scores more

64%

level

21%

Kolomna scores more

16%

FK Spartak Tambov at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FK Spartak Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff