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Kolomna vs Dinamo Moskva II — Second League - Group 2 2020

Kolomna
Kolomna
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Moskva II
Dinamo Moskva II
10/9/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Kolomna28%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Moskva II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolomna
1.19
Dinamo Moskva II
1.64

Dinamo Moskva II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 70 away

creates per match

Kolomna
1.21
Dinamo Moskva II
1.46

allows per match

Kolomna
1.82
Dinamo Moskva II
1.17

finishing

Kolomna+0.00on par
Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolomna ↓

Dinamo Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kolomna or draw
52%
Kolomna or Dinamo Moskva II
76%
Draw or Dinamo Moskva II
72%

Winning margin

Kolomna wins by 2+
11%
Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kolomna 1+ goals
70%
Kolomna 2+ goals
33%
Kolomna 3+ goals
12%
Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals
81%
Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals
49%
Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kolomna (draw refunded)
37%
Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolomna at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

Dinamo Moskva II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolomna attack 1.21 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dinamo Moskva II attack 1.46 + Kolomna defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kolomna scores more
28%
level
24%
Dinamo Moskva II scores more
48%

Dinamo Moskva II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Kolomna 0–1 Dinamo Moskva II

Dinamo Moskva II beat Kolomna 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on October 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Kolomna.