Dinamo Moskva II 5–2 Kolomna: Result & Stats

Dinamo Moskva II

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Kolomna

S. Pushkov 90+5'

I. Gomanyuk 73' (pen)

V. Moskvichev 47'

Y. Gladyshev 34'

A. Mazurin 28'

V. Shakir 63'

A. Vikulov 59'

4/12/2021

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 19Stadion Rodina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Dinamo Moskva II62%

×Draw20%

Kolomna18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo Moskva IIExpected goals in this matchKolomna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.05

Dinamo Moskva II

2.16

Kolomna

1.05

Dinamo Moskva II creates 106% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 29 away

2.35

creates per match

0.83

1.28

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva II

2.35

Kolomna

0.83

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva II

1.28

Kolomna

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par

Kolomna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva II ↓

Kolomna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva II or draw

82%

Dinamo Moskva II or Kolomna

80%

Draw or Kolomna

38%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+

39%

Kolomna wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals

88%

Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals

63%

Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals

36%

Kolomna 1+ goals

65%

Kolomna 2+ goals

28%

Kolomna 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)

78%

Kolomna (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva II at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

Kolomna away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva II attack 2.35 + Kolomna defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.16

Kolomna attack 0.83 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dinamo Moskva II scores more

62%

level

20%

Kolomna scores more

18%

Dinamo Moskva II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

34'

47'

53'

53'

56'

59'

63'

67'

S. Pushkov← V. Galkin

73'

D. Vladimirov← I. Gomanyuk

73'

I. GomanyukPenalty

77'

I. Kosov← D. Ignashevich

82'

V. Romantsev← E. Novikov

85'

D. Pakhomov← V. Andyamov

87'

G. Sulakvelidze← S. Slepov

90+2'

A. Usanov← Y. Gladyshev

90+5'

S. Pushkov

Dinamo

Kolomna

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Gomanyuk

⚽

Moskviche

⚽

▼

Mazurin

Shkolik

▼

Galkin

⚽

▼

Gladyshev

Manager: A. Kulchiy

56'▲Y. Nesov←▼A. Mazurin

67'▲S. Pushkov←▼V. Galkin

73'▲D. Vladimirov←▼I. Gomanyuk

87'▲G. Sulakvelidze←▼S. Slepov

90+2'▲A. Usanov←▼Y. Gladyshev

Dinamo Moskva II substitutes

NesovPushkovVladimirovSulakvelidzeUsanov

Manager: A. Kuranov

77'▲I. Kosov←▼D. Ignashevich

82'▲V. Romantsev←▼E. Novikov

85'▲D. Pakhomov←▼V. Andyamov

Kolomna substitutes

KosovRomantsevPakhomov

Second League - Group 2: Dinamo Moskva II 5–2 Kolomna

Dinamo Moskva II beat Kolomna 5-2 in Second League - Group 2 on April 12, 2021.

Goals: A. Mazurin (28'), Y. Gladyshev (34'), V. Moskvichev (47'), A. Vikulov (59'), V. Shakir (63'), I. Gomanyuk (73' pen), S. Pushkov (90+5').

The match was played at Stadion Rodina in Khimki.

Dinamo Moskva II vs Kolomna — Second League - Group 2 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League - Group 2: Dinamo Moskva II 5–2 Kolomna