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Kolomna vs Cherepovets — Second League - Group 2 2020

Kolomna
Kolomna
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cherepovets
Cherepovets
6/8/2025Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Kolomna38%
×Draw25%
Cherepovets38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolomna
1.48
Cherepovets
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 21 away

creates per match

Kolomna
1.21
Cherepovets
1.14

allows per match

Kolomna
1.82
Cherepovets
1.76

finishing

Kolomna+0.00on par
Cherepovets+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolomna ↓

Cherepovets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kolomna or draw
62%
Kolomna or Cherepovets
75%
Draw or Cherepovets
62%

Winning margin

Kolomna wins by 2+
18%
Cherepovets wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kolomna 1+ goals
77%
Kolomna 2+ goals
43%
Kolomna 3+ goals
19%
Cherepovets 1+ goals
77%
Cherepovets 2+ goals
43%
Cherepovets 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kolomna (draw refunded)
50%
Cherepovets (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolomna at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

Cherepovets away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolomna attack 1.21 + Cherepovets defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.48

Cherepovets attack 1.14 + Kolomna defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kolomna scores more
38%
level
25%
Cherepovets scores more
38%

Kolomna at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kolomna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Kolomna 1–2 Cherepovets

Cherepovets beat Kolomna 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on June 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Kolomna.