Cherepovets 3–0 Kolomna: Result & Stats

Cherepovets

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kolomna

9/28/2025

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Cherepovets51%

×Draw25%

Kolomna24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CherepovetsExpected goals in this matchKolomna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.06

Cherepovets

1.65

Kolomna

1.06

Cherepovets creates 56% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 29 away

1.33

creates per match

0.83

1.29

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Cherepovets

1.33

Kolomna

0.83

allows per match

Cherepovets

1.29

Kolomna

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cherepovets+0.00on par

Kolomna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cherepovets ↓

Kolomna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cherepovets or draw

76%

Cherepovets or Kolomna

75%

Draw or Kolomna

49%

Winning margin

Cherepovets wins by 2+

27%

Kolomna wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cherepovets 1+ goals

81%

Cherepovets 2+ goals

49%

Cherepovets 3+ goals

23%

Kolomna 1+ goals

65%

Kolomna 2+ goals

29%

Kolomna 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cherepovets (draw refunded)

68%

Kolomna (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cherepovets at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Kolomna away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cherepovets attack 1.33 + Kolomna defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kolomna attack 0.83 + Cherepovets defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cherepovets scores more

51%

level

25%

Kolomna scores more

24%

Cherepovets at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cherepovets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff