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Kolomna vs Baltika II — Second League - Group 2 2020

Kolomna
Kolomna
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Baltika II
Baltika II
5/11/2025Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Kolomna26%
×Draw24%
Baltika II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolomna
1.16
Baltika II
1.70

Baltika II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 21 away

creates per match

Kolomna
1.21
Baltika II
1.57

allows per match

Kolomna
1.82
Baltika II
1.10

finishing

Kolomna+0.00on par
Baltika II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolomna ↓

Baltika II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kolomna or draw
50%
Kolomna or Baltika II
76%
Draw or Baltika II
74%

Winning margin

Kolomna wins by 2+
10%
Baltika II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Kolomna 1+ goals
69%
Kolomna 2+ goals
32%
Kolomna 3+ goals
11%
Baltika II 1+ goals
82%
Baltika II 2+ goals
51%
Baltika II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Kolomna (draw refunded)
34%
Baltika II (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolomna at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

Baltika II away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolomna attack 1.21 + Baltika II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Baltika II attack 1.57 + Kolomna defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kolomna scores more
26%
level
24%
Baltika II scores more
50%

Baltika II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Baltika II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kolomna vs Baltika II

Baltika II beat Kolomna 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Kolomna.