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Baltika II vs Kolomna — Second League - Group 2 2020

Baltika II
Baltika II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kolomna
Kolomna
8/31/2025Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Baltika Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Baltika II56%
×Draw22%
Kolomna22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika II
1.89
Kolomna
1.10

Baltika II creates 72% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 29 away

creates per match

Baltika II
1.81
Kolomna
0.83

allows per match

Baltika II
1.38
Kolomna
1.97

finishing

Baltika II+0.00on par
Kolomna+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika II ↓

Kolomna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Baltika II or draw
78%
Baltika II or Kolomna
78%
Draw or Kolomna
44%

Winning margin

Baltika II wins by 2+
32%
Kolomna wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Baltika II 1+ goals
85%
Baltika II 2+ goals
56%
Baltika II 3+ goals
29%
Kolomna 1+ goals
67%
Kolomna 2+ goals
30%
Kolomna 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Baltika II (draw refunded)
72%
Kolomna (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika II at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

Kolomna away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika II attack 1.81 + Kolomna defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.89

Kolomna attack 0.83 + Baltika II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Baltika II scores more
56%
level
22%
Kolomna scores more
22%

Baltika II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Baltika II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 2: Baltika II 3–1 Kolomna

Baltika II beat Kolomna 3-1 in Second League - Group 2 on August 31, 2025.

The match was played at Baltika Stadium in Kaliningrad.