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Köln U19 vs Hamburger SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Köln U19
Köln U19
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Hamburger SV U19
Hamburger SV U19
3/29/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Köln U1952%
×Draw21%
Hamburger SV U1927%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köln U19
2.15
Hamburger SV U19
1.50

Köln U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 79 away

creates per match

Köln U19
2.49
Hamburger SV U19
2.10

allows per match

Köln U19
0.90
Hamburger SV U19
1.81

finishing

Köln U19+0.00on par
Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köln U19 ↓

Hamburger SV U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Köln U19 or draw
73%
Köln U19 or Hamburger SV U19
79%
Draw or Hamburger SV U19
48%

Winning margin

Köln U19 wins by 2+
31%
Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Köln U19 1+ goals
88%
Köln U19 2+ goals
63%
Köln U19 3+ goals
36%
Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals
78%
Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals
44%
Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Köln U19 (draw refunded)
66%
Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köln U19 at home — creates 2.49, concedes 0.90 · 71 matches

Hamburger SV U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.81 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köln U19 attack 2.49 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.15

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.10 + Köln U19 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Köln U19 scores more
52%
level
21%
Hamburger SV U19 scores more
27%

Köln U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Köln
Hamburger
Stefan Ruthenbeck
Manager: Stefan Ruthenbeck
L. Pfeiffer
Manager: L. Pfeiffer

U19 Bundesliga: Köln U19 4–0 Hamburger SV U19

Köln U19 beat Hamburger SV U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 29, 2026.