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Hamburger SV U19 vs Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hamburger SV U19
Hamburger SV U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Köln U19
Köln U19
2/15/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Hamburger SV U1937%
×Draw22%
Köln U1942%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV U19
1.81
Köln U19
1.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 72 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV U19
2.49
Köln U19
2.14

allows per match

Hamburger SV U19
1.71
Köln U19
1.13

finishing

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par
Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV U19 ↓

Köln U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Hamburger SV U19 or draw
58%
Hamburger SV U19 or Köln U19
78%
Draw or Köln U19
63%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+
19%
Köln U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals
84%
Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals
54%
Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals
27%
Köln U19 1+ goals
85%
Köln U19 2+ goals
57%
Köln U19 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)
47%
Köln U19 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV U19 at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.71 · 76 matches

Köln U19 away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.13 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.49 + Köln U19 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.81

Köln U19 attack 2.14 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hamburger SV U19 scores more
37%
level
22%
Köln U19 scores more
42%

Köln U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Hamburger
Köln
L. Pfeiffer
Manager: L. Pfeiffer
Stefan Ruthenbeck
Manager: Stefan Ruthenbeck

Match Recap: Hamburger SV U19 vs Köln U19

Köln U19 beat Hamburger SV U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 15, 2026.