Köln U19 2–4 Genk U19: Result & Stats

Köln U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Genk U19

J. Schwirten 47'

M. Schmid 5'

A. Németh 58'

K. John 45+2', 43'

S. Diawara 36'

9/29/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group StageFranz-Kremer-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Köln U1920%

×Draw19%

Genk U1961%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Köln U19Expected goals in this matchGenk U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

2.38

Köln U19

1.30

Genk U19

2.38

Genk U19 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

1.50

creates per match

2.50

2.25

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Köln U19

1.50

Genk U19

2.50

allows per match

Köln U19

2.25

Genk U19

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Köln U19+0.00on par

Genk U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köln U19 ↓

Genk U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Köln U19 or draw

39%

Köln U19 or Genk U19

81%

Draw or Genk U19

80%

Winning margin

Köln U19 wins by 2+

8%

Genk U19 wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Köln U19 1+ goals

73%

Köln U19 2+ goals

37%

Köln U19 3+ goals

14%

Genk U19 1+ goals

91%

Genk U19 2+ goals

68%

Genk U19 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Köln U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Genk U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köln U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Genk U19 away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köln U19 attack 1.50 + Genk U19 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.30

Genk U19 attack 2.50 + Köln U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Köln U19 scores more

20%

level

19%

Genk U19 scores more

61%

Genk U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Genk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

36'

43'

45+2'

47'

49'

A. Nemeth

52'

58'

60'

61'

72'

M. Wäschenbach← M. Schmid

77'

B. El Khannous← S. Diawara

78'

N. Urso← P. Nadjombe

78'

V. Fadeev← J. Schwirten

83'

L. Oyen

90+3'

K. Van de Perre← K. John

Köln

Genk

1

5

2

3

4

10

⚽

8

6

11

7

⚽2

▼

John

9

⚽

▼

Diawara

1

Urbig

4

Örnek

2

▼

Nadjombe

11

Obuz

10

⚽

▼

Schwirten

6

Castrop

7

▼

Wydra

8

Breuer

5

Smajic

9

⚽

▼

Schmid

3

Suchanek

Manager: S. Ruthenbeck

60'▲J. Diehl←▼P. Wydra

72'▲M. Wäschenbach←▼M. Schmid

78'▲N. Urso←▼P. Nadjombe

78'▲V. Fadeev←▼J. Schwirten

Köln U19 substitutes

18Diehl16Wäschenbach14Urso17Fadeev13Decker12Dreier19Cisse

Manager: H. Somers

77'▲B. El Khannous←▼S. Diawara

90+3'▲K. Van de Perre←▼K. John

Genk U19 substitutes

16Khannous15Perre40Stevens17Arabaci18Cutillas-Carpe14Grand12Et-Taibi

Match Recap: Köln U19 vs Genk U19

Genk U19 beat Köln U19 4-2 in UEFA Youth League on September 29, 2021.

Goals: M. Schmid (5'), S. Diawara (36'), K. John (43', 45+2'), J. Schwirten (47'), A. Németh (58').

The match was played at Franz-Kremer-Stadion in Köln.

Köln U19 vs Genk U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Köln U19 vs Genk U19