Genk U19 3–1 Köln U19: Result & Stats

Genk U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Köln U19

J. Geusens 90+6' (pen)

L. Oyen 60'

A. Abid 14'

J. Schwirten 8'

10/19/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group StageB-Veld Racing Genk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Genk U1937%

×Draw21%

Köln U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Genk U19Expected goals in this matchKöln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.98

Genk U19

1.86

Köln U19

1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

2.40

creates per match

2.67

1.30

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Genk U19

2.40

Köln U19

2.67

allows per match

Genk U19

1.30

Köln U19

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Genk U19+0.00on par

Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk U19 ↓

Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Genk U19 or draw

58%

Genk U19 or Köln U19

79%

Draw or Köln U19

63%

Winning margin

Genk U19 wins by 2+

19%

Köln U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Genk U19 1+ goals

84%

Genk U19 2+ goals

55%

Genk U19 3+ goals

28%

Köln U19 1+ goals

86%

Köln U19 2+ goals

59%

Köln U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Genk U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Köln U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk U19 at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Köln U19 away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk U19 attack 2.40 + Köln U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

Köln U19 attack 2.67 + Genk U19 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Genk U19 scores more

37%

level

21%

Köln U19 scores more

42%

Köln U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

J. Schwirten

14'

A. Abid

42'

A. Abid

54'

M. Wäschenbach← J. Schwirten

60'

L. Oyen

64'

D. Downs← P. Wydra

64'

M. Monning← R. Smajic

66'

J. Geusens

67'

S. Breuer

74'

B. El Khannous← A. Abid

76'

76'

82'

86'

86'

86'

D. Cutillas-Carpe← M. Swerts

90+3'

V. Fadeev

90'

N. Martens← L. Oyen

90+6'

J. GeusensPenalty

Genk

Köln

1

4

2

11

10

⚽

▼

Schwirten

6

Castrop

7

▼

Wydra

8

▼

Breuer

5

▼

Smajic

9

▼

3

40

5

2

3

9

10

⚽

▼

Abid

14

Perre

8

⚽

Geusens

6

▼

Swerts

11

⚽

▼

Oyen

7

▼

John

Manager: H. Somers

74'▲B. El Khannous←▼A. Abid

86'▲D. Arabaci←▼K. John

86'▲D. Cutillas-Carpe←▼M. Swerts

90'▲N. Martens←▼L. Oyen

Genk U19 substitutes

15Khannous16Arabaci17Cutillas-Carpe19Martens12Et-Taibi1Stevens18Michiels

Manager: S. Ruthenbeck

54'▲M. Wäschenbach←▼J. Schwirten

64'▲D. Downs←▼P. Wydra

64'▲M. Monning←▼R. Smajic

76'▲V. Fadeev←▼M. Schmid

76'▲V. Fratea←▼S. Breuer

Köln U19 substitutes

18Wäschenbach19Downs14Monning17Fadeev16Fratea12Dreier15Decker

UEFA Youth League: Genk U19 3–1 Köln U19

Genk U19 beat Köln U19 3-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 19, 2021.

Goals: J. Schwirten (8'), A. Abid (14'), L. Oyen (60'), J. Geusens (90+6' pen).

The match was played at B-Veld Racing Genk in Genk.

Genk U19 vs Köln U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Genk U19 3–1 Köln U19