Köln U19 5–2 Chemnitzer FC U19: Result & Stats

Köln U19

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Chemnitzer FC U19

F. Schenten 90'

J. von der Hitz 73', 9'

A. Puzzo 29'

Y. Niang 20'

L. Löwelt 85' (pen), 45'

2/16/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 3Franz-Kremer-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Köln U1968%

×Draw17%

Chemnitzer FC U1915%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Köln U19Expected goals in this matchChemnitzer FC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.64

1.16

Köln U19

2.64

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.16

Köln U19 creates 128% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 53 away

2.51

creates per match

1.42

0.90

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

Köln U19

2.51

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.42

allows per match

Köln U19

0.90

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Köln U19+0.00on par

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köln U19 ↓

Chemnitzer FC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Köln U19 or draw

85%

Köln U19 or Chemnitzer FC U19

83%

Draw or Chemnitzer FC U19

32%

Winning margin

Köln U19 wins by 2+

47%

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Köln U19 1+ goals

93%

Köln U19 2+ goals

74%

Köln U19 3+ goals

48%

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

69%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

32%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Köln U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köln U19 at home — creates 2.51, concedes 0.90 · 73 matches

Chemnitzer FC U19 away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.77 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köln U19 attack 2.51 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.64

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.42 + Köln U19 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Köln U19 scores more

68%

level

17%

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

15%

Köln U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

J. von der Hitz

19'

K. Irmiev← G. Mioćevič

20'

29'

45'

46'

64'

T. Taubert← B. Schmidt

69'

F. Schenten← J. Friemel

69'

T. Fernandes← A. Puzzo

73'

J. von der Hitz

76'

A. Römers← Y. Niang

76'

C. Chukwukelu← K. Sancarbarlaz

76'

J. Ponente← J. von der Hitz

76'

G. Tóth← P. Sauer

76'

K. Mauersberger← A. Mensah

76'

P. Philipp← A. Zamora

85'

L. LöweltPenalty

90'

F. Schenten

Köln

Chemnitzer

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Puzzo

⚽

▼

Niang

Manager: S. Ruthenbeck

19'▲K. Irmiev←▼G. Mioćevič

69'▲F. Schenten←▼J. Friemel

69'▲T. Fernandes←▼A. Puzzo

76'▲A. Römers←▼Y. Niang

76'▲C. Chukwukelu←▼K. Sancarbarlaz

76'▲J. Ponente←▼J. von der Hitz

Köln U19 substitutes

IrmievSchentenFernandesRömersChukwukeluPonenteMarutzki

Manager: T. Wappler

46'▲N. Tänzer←▼A. Hiecke

64'▲T. Taubert←▼B. Schmidt

76'▲G. Tóth←▼P. Sauer

76'▲K. Mauersberger←▼A. Mensah

76'▲P. Philipp←▼A. Zamora

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

TänzerTaubertTóthMauersbergerPhilippBrücknerSchunter

U19 Bundesliga: Köln U19 5–2 Chemnitzer FC U19

Köln U19 beat Chemnitzer FC U19 5-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 16, 2025.

Goals: J. von der Hitz (9', 73'), Y. Niang (20'), A. Puzzo (29'), L. Löwelt (45', 85' pen), F. Schenten (90').

The match was played at Franz-Kremer-Stadion in Köln.

Köln U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Köln U19 5–2 Chemnitzer FC U19