Chemnitzer FC U19 2–2 Köln U19: Result & Stats

Chemnitzer FC U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Köln U19

N. Tänzer 47'

L. Löwelt 39'

Y. Niang 33'

A. Kotya-Fofana 26'

3/30/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 8Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Chemnitzer FC U1923%

×Draw21%

Köln U1957%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemnitzer FC U19Expected goals in this matchKöln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

2.15

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.29

Köln U19

2.15

Köln U19 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 75 away

1.43

creates per match

2.12

2.17

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.43

Köln U19

2.12

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.17

Köln U19

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC U19 ↓

Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC U19 or draw

43%

Chemnitzer FC U19 or Köln U19

79%

Draw or Köln U19

77%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

9%

Köln U19 wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

72%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

37%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

14%

Köln U19 1+ goals

88%

Köln U19 2+ goals

63%

Köln U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Köln U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC U19 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.17 · 54 matches

Köln U19 away — creates 2.12, concedes 1.15 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.43 + Köln U19 defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.29

Köln U19 attack 2.12 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

23%

level

21%

Köln U19 scores more

57%

Köln U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

A. Kotya-Fofana

33'

Y. Niang

39'

L. Löwelt

46'

J. Ullmann← T. Taubert

47'

N. Tänzer

63'

A. Puzzo← C. Chukwukelu

63'

J. Ponente← F. Schenten

71'

D. Williams← A. Römers

75'

G. Hempel← A. Mensah

79'

F. Gromzick← K. Irmiev

85'

K. Mauersberger← P. Sauer

85'

P. Philipp← F. Kunstmann

Chemnitzer

Köln

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: T. Wappler

46'▲J. Ullmann←▼T. Taubert

75'▲G. Hempel←▼A. Mensah

85'▲K. Mauersberger←▼P. Sauer

85'▲P. Philipp←▼F. Kunstmann

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

UllmannHempelMauersbergerPhilippSchmidtWimmerLenz

Manager: S. Ruthenbeck

63'▲A. Puzzo←▼C. Chukwukelu

63'▲J. Ponente←▼F. Schenten

71'▲D. Williams←▼A. Römers

79'▲F. Gromzick←▼K. Irmiev

Köln U19 substitutes

PuzzoPonenteWilliamsGromzickGödtnerSchmitz