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Köln U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Köln U19
Köln U19
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Arminia Bielefeld U19
Arminia Bielefeld U19
4/30/2022U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 17Franz-Kremer-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Köln U1960%
×Draw20%
Arminia Bielefeld U1920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köln U19
2.20
Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.20

Köln U19 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 61 away

creates per match

Köln U19
2.37
Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.44

allows per match

Köln U19
0.96
Arminia Bielefeld U19
2.02

finishing

Köln U19+0.00on par
Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köln U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Köln U19 or draw
80%
Köln U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19
80%
Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19
40%

Winning margin

Köln U19 wins by 2+
37%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Köln U19 1+ goals
89%
Köln U19 2+ goals
64%
Köln U19 3+ goals
37%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals
70%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals
34%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Köln U19 (draw refunded)
75%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köln U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.96 · 67 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.02 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köln U19 attack 2.37 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.20

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.44 + Köln U19 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Köln U19 scores more
60%
level
20%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more
20%

Köln U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Köln U19 7–0 Arminia Bielefeld U19

Köln U19 beat Arminia Bielefeld U19 7-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Franz-Kremer-Stadion in Köln.