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Arminia Bielefeld U19 vs Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Arminia Bielefeld U19
Arminia Bielefeld U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Köln U19
Köln U19
3/3/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 19Böllhoff Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld U1928%
×Draw23%
Köln U1949%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.37
Köln U19
1.86

Köln U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 69 away

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.60
Köln U19
2.01

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.72
Köln U19
1.14

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par
Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld U19 ↓

Köln U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or draw
51%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 or Köln U19
77%
Draw or Köln U19
72%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+
12%
Köln U19 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals
75%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals
40%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals
16%
Köln U19 1+ goals
84%
Köln U19 2+ goals
55%
Köln U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)
37%
Köln U19 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.72 · 60 matches

Köln U19 away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.60 + Köln U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.37

Köln U19 attack 2.01 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more
28%
level
23%
Köln U19 scores more
49%

Köln U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Arminia Bielefeld U19 1–3 Köln U19

Köln U19 beat Arminia Bielefeld U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Böllhoff Stadion in Bielefeld.