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Kolkheti Poti vs Dinamo Tbilisi II — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Dinamo Tbilisi II
Dinamo Tbilisi II
3/31/2023Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 5Stadioni Pazisi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Kolkheti Poti50%
×Draw23%
Dinamo Tbilisi II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolkheti Poti
1.80
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.25

Kolkheti Poti creates 44% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 56 away

creates per match

Kolkheti Poti
1.54
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.34

allows per match

Kolkheti Poti
1.15
Dinamo Tbilisi II
2.07

finishing

Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par
Dinamo Tbilisi II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolkheti Poti ↓

Dinamo Tbilisi II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kolkheti Poti or draw
73%
Kolkheti Poti or Dinamo Tbilisi II
77%
Draw or Dinamo Tbilisi II
50%

Winning margin

Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+
28%
Dinamo Tbilisi II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals
83%
Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals
54%
Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals
27%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)
65%
Dinamo Tbilisi II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolkheti Poti at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

Dinamo Tbilisi II away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.07 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolkheti Poti attack 1.54 + Dinamo Tbilisi II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.80

Dinamo Tbilisi II attack 1.34 + Kolkheti Poti defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kolkheti Poti scores more
50%
level
23%
Dinamo Tbilisi II scores more
27%

Kolkheti Poti at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kolkheti Poti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Kolkheti Poti 3–0 Dinamo Tbilisi II

Kolkheti Poti beat Dinamo Tbilisi II 3-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Stadioni Pazisi in Poti.