Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Tbilisi II vs Kolkheti Poti — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Dinamo Tbilisi II
Dinamo Tbilisi II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti
11/3/2023Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 32Vitali Daraselias Sakhelobis Dinamos Sapekhburto Akademia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Dinamo Tbilisi II46%
×Draw24%
Kolkheti Poti30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.73
Kolkheti Poti
1.36

Dinamo Tbilisi II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 46 away

creates per match

Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.73
Kolkheti Poti
1.17

allows per match

Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.55
Kolkheti Poti
1.72

finishing

Dinamo Tbilisi II+0.00on par
Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Tbilisi II ↓

Kolkheti Poti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dinamo Tbilisi II or draw
70%
Dinamo Tbilisi II or Kolkheti Poti
76%
Draw or Kolkheti Poti
54%

Winning margin

Dinamo Tbilisi II wins by 2+
25%
Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dinamo Tbilisi II 1+ goals
82%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 2+ goals
52%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 3+ goals
25%
Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals
74%
Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals
39%
Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Tbilisi II (draw refunded)
60%
Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Tbilisi II at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 56 matches

Kolkheti Poti away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Tbilisi II attack 1.73 + Kolkheti Poti defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.73

Kolkheti Poti attack 1.17 + Dinamo Tbilisi II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo Tbilisi II scores more
46%
level
24%
Kolkheti Poti scores more
30%

Dinamo Tbilisi II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo Tbilisi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Dinamo Tbilisi II 0–2 Kolkheti Poti

Kolkheti Poti beat Dinamo Tbilisi II 2-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at Vitali Daraselias Sakhelobis Dinamos Sapekhburto Akademia in Tbilisi.