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Kolkheti Poti vs Dinamo Batumi — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi
10/5/2024Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 28Kobuleti Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Kolkheti Poti28%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Batumi48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolkheti Poti
1.23
Dinamo Batumi
1.68

Dinamo Batumi creates 37% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 128 away

creates per match

Kolkheti Poti
1.36
Dinamo Batumi
1.52

allows per match

Kolkheti Poti
1.83
Dinamo Batumi
1.10

finishing

Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par
Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolkheti Poti ↓

Dinamo Batumi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kolkheti Poti or draw
52%
Kolkheti Poti or Dinamo Batumi
76%
Draw or Dinamo Batumi
72%

Winning margin

Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+
12%
Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals
71%
Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals
35%
Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals
13%
Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals
81%
Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals
50%
Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)
37%
Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolkheti Poti at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.83 · 36 matches

Dinamo Batumi away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolkheti Poti attack 1.36 + Dinamo Batumi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Dinamo Batumi attack 1.52 + Kolkheti Poti defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kolkheti Poti scores more
28%
level
24%
Dinamo Batumi scores more
48%

Dinamo Batumi at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dinamo Batumi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Kolkheti Poti 0–1 Dinamo Batumi

Dinamo Batumi beat Kolkheti Poti 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Kobuleti Football Center in Kobuleti.