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Dinamo Batumi vs Kolkheti Poti — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti
12/5/2025Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 36Adjarabet Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Dinamo Batumi57%
×Draw23%
Kolkheti Poti20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Batumi
1.84
Kolkheti Poti
1.00

Dinamo Batumi creates 84% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 36 away

creates per match

Dinamo Batumi
1.93
Kolkheti Poti
0.89

allows per match

Dinamo Batumi
1.10
Kolkheti Poti
1.75

finishing

Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par
Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Batumi ↓

Kolkheti Poti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dinamo Batumi or draw
80%
Dinamo Batumi or Kolkheti Poti
77%
Draw or Kolkheti Poti
43%

Winning margin

Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+
33%
Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals
84%
Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals
55%
Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals
28%
Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals
63%
Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals
26%
Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)
74%
Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Batumi at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.10 · 125 matches

Kolkheti Poti away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Batumi attack 1.93 + Kolkheti Poti defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.84

Kolkheti Poti attack 0.89 + Dinamo Batumi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dinamo Batumi scores more
57%
level
23%
Kolkheti Poti scores more
20%

Dinamo Batumi at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dinamo Batumi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Dinamo Batumi 3–2 Kolkheti Poti

Dinamo Batumi beat Kolkheti Poti 3-2 in Erovnuli Liga on December 5, 2025.

The match was played at Adjarabet Arena in Batumi.