Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kolkheti Khobi vs Gareji — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Kolkheti Khobi
Kolkheti Khobi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gareji
Gareji
11/24/2023Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 34Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Kolkheti Khobi35%
×Draw26%
Gareji39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolkheti Khobi
1.28
Gareji
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 75 away

creates per match

Kolkheti Khobi
1.11
Gareji
1.40

allows per match

Kolkheti Khobi
1.33
Gareji
1.45

finishing

Kolkheti Khobi+0.00on par
Gareji+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolkheti Khobi ↓

Gareji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kolkheti Khobi or draw
61%
Kolkheti Khobi or Gareji
74%
Draw or Gareji
65%

Winning margin

Kolkheti Khobi wins by 2+
15%
Gareji wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kolkheti Khobi 1+ goals
72%
Kolkheti Khobi 2+ goals
37%
Kolkheti Khobi 3+ goals
14%
Gareji 1+ goals
74%
Gareji 2+ goals
39%
Gareji 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kolkheti Khobi (draw refunded)
47%
Gareji (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolkheti Khobi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 36 matches

Gareji away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolkheti Khobi attack 1.11 + Gareji defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.28

Gareji attack 1.40 + Kolkheti Khobi defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kolkheti Khobi scores more
35%
level
26%
Gareji scores more
39%

Gareji at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gareji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Kolkheti Khobi 1–1 Gareji

Kolkheti Khobi and Gareji drew 1-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni in Khobi.