Gareji 2–1 Kolkheti Khobi: Result & Stats

Gareji

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Kolkheti Khobi

4/22/2024

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 8Sagarejos Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Gareji69%

×Draw18%

Kolkheti Khobi13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GarejiExpected goals in this matchKolkheti Khobi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.90

Gareji

2.33

Kolkheti Khobi

0.90

Gareji creates 159% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 36 away

2.20

creates per match

0.94

0.86

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Gareji

2.20

Kolkheti Khobi

0.94

allows per match

Gareji

0.86

Kolkheti Khobi

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gareji+0.00on par

Kolkheti Khobi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gareji ↓

Kolkheti Khobi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Gareji or draw

87%

Gareji or Kolkheti Khobi

82%

Draw or Kolkheti Khobi

31%

Winning margin

Gareji wins by 2+

46%

Kolkheti Khobi wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Gareji 1+ goals

90%

Gareji 2+ goals

67%

Gareji 3+ goals

41%

Kolkheti Khobi 1+ goals

59%

Kolkheti Khobi 2+ goals

23%

Kolkheti Khobi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Gareji (draw refunded)

84%

Kolkheti Khobi (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gareji at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.86 · 74 matches

Kolkheti Khobi away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.47 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gareji attack 2.20 + Kolkheti Khobi defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.33

Kolkheti Khobi attack 0.94 + Gareji defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Gareji scores more

69%

level

18%

Kolkheti Khobi scores more

13%

Gareji at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Gareji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff