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Kolín vs Horky nad Jizerou — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Kolín
Kolín
FT
2 – 1
Horky nad Jizerou
Horky nad Jizerou
9/19/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 8Mestský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Kolín81%
×Draw12%
Horky nad Jizerou7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolín
3.16
Horky nad Jizerou
0.88

Kolín creates 259% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

Kolín
3.68
Horky nad Jizerou
0.96

allows per match

Kolín
0.80
Horky nad Jizerou
2.64

finishing

Kolín+0.00on par
Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolín ↓

Horky nad Jizerou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Kolín or draw
93%
Kolín or Horky nad Jizerou
88%
Draw or Horky nad Jizerou
19%

Winning margin

Kolín wins by 2+
62%
Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kolín 1+ goals
96%
Kolín 2+ goals
82%
Kolín 3+ goals
59%
Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
59%
Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
22%
Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kolín (draw refunded)
92%
Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolín at home — creates 3.68, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Horky nad Jizerou away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolín attack 3.68 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 3.16

Horky nad Jizerou attack 0.96 + Kolín defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Kolín scores more
81%
level
12%
Horky nad Jizerou scores more
7%

Kolín at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Kolín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Kolín 2–1 Horky nad Jizerou

Kolín beat Horky nad Jizerou 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Mestský stadion in Kolín V.