Horky nad Jizerou 2–4 Kolín: Result & Stats

Horky nad Jizerou

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Kolín

4/30/2022

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 23Hřiště FC Horky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Horky nad Jizerou32%

×Draw21%

Kolín46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Horky nad JizerouExpected goals in this matchKolín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

2.02

Horky nad Jizerou

1.66

Kolín

2.02

Kolín creates 22% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

2.04

creates per match

2.40

1.64

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Horky nad Jizerou

2.04

Kolín

2.40

allows per match

Horky nad Jizerou

1.64

Kolín

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Kolín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horky nad Jizerou ↓

Kolín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Horky nad Jizerou or draw

54%

Horky nad Jizerou or Kolín

79%

Draw or Kolín

68%

Winning margin

Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+

16%

Kolín wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals

81%

Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals

49%

Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals

23%

Kolín 1+ goals

87%

Kolín 2+ goals

60%

Kolín 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)

41%

Kolín (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horky nad Jizerou at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

Kolín away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horky nad Jizerou attack 2.04 + Kolín defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.66

Kolín attack 2.40 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Horky nad Jizerou scores more

32%

level

21%

Kolín scores more

46%

Kolín at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kolín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Horky nad Jizerou 2–4 Kolín

Kolín beat Horky nad Jizerou 4-2 in 4. liga - Divizie C on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Hřiště FC Horky in Horky nad Jizerou.

Horky nad Jizerou vs Kolín — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

4. liga - Divizie C: Horky nad Jizerou 2–4 Kolín