Kolding IF 0–2 Aarhus Fremad: Result & Stats

Kolding IF

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Aarhus Fremad

S. Buch 75'

L. From 54'

5/5/2023

2nd Division - Group 1 · Promotion Group - 4Autocentralen Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kolding IF38%

×Draw27%

Aarhus Fremad35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kolding IFExpected goals in this matchAarhus Fremad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.24

Kolding IF

1.31

Aarhus Fremad

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 81 away

1.48

creates per match

1.63

0.85

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Kolding IF

1.48

Aarhus Fremad

1.63

allows per match

Kolding IF

0.85

Aarhus Fremad

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kolding IF+0.00on par

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolding IF ↓

Aarhus Fremad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kolding IF or draw

65%

Kolding IF or Aarhus Fremad

73%

Draw or Aarhus Fremad

62%

Winning margin

Kolding IF wins by 2+

17%

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kolding IF 1+ goals

73%

Kolding IF 2+ goals

38%

Kolding IF 3+ goals

14%

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals

71%

Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals

35%

Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kolding IF (draw refunded)

52%

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolding IF at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolding IF attack 1.48 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.63 + Kolding IF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kolding IF scores more

38%

level

27%

Aarhus Fremad scores more

35%

Kolding IF at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kolding IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

L. From

75'

S. Buch

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff