Aarhus Fremad 2–2 Kolding IF: Result & Stats

Aarhus Fremad

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Kolding IF

K. Andersen 90', 87'

I. Tannander 61', 34'

8/20/2025

1. Division · Round 6Riisvangen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Aarhus Fremad53%

×Draw24%

Kolding IF23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aarhus FremadExpected goals in this matchKolding IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.05

Aarhus Fremad

1.71

Kolding IF

1.05

Aarhus Fremad creates 63% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 81 away

2.06

creates per match

1.16

0.94

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad

2.06

Kolding IF

1.16

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad

0.94

Kolding IF

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad ↓

Kolding IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad or draw

77%

Aarhus Fremad or Kolding IF

76%

Draw or Kolding IF

47%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+

29%

Kolding IF wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals

82%

Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals

51%

Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals

24%

Kolding IF 1+ goals

65%

Kolding IF 2+ goals

28%

Kolding IF 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)

69%

Kolding IF (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad attack 2.06 + Kolding IF defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kolding IF attack 1.16 + Aarhus Fremad defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Aarhus Fremad scores more

53%

level

24%

Kolding IF scores more

23%

Aarhus Fremad at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

I. Tannander↳ A. Norager

37'

E. Nissen← M. Kjolby

46'

E. Egerton← M. Kirchheiner

58'

M. Doj← A. Norager

61'

I. Tannander↳ N. Nedic

64'

K. Lunding← M. Kubel

64'

A. Holvad← A. Pisani

68'

S. Baekgard

69'

C. Palm← I. Tannander

69'

J. Bjarnason← N. Morberg

72'

E. Nissen

75'

M. de Claville Berthelsen←

82'

J. Alfaro← E. Voufack

82'

F. Moller← V. Westh

85'

M. Saaby

87'

K. Andersen↳ A. Holvad

90+3'

F. Grube

90'

K. Andersen

Aarhus

Kolding

99

Moser

30

▼

Voufack

10

Olsen

3

A

▼

Norager

6

A

Nedic

2

Vadstrup

23

▼

Morberg

20

Saaby

22

⚽2

▼

Tannander

18

▼

24

1

6

3

2

▼

Kjolby

10

Kirchhein

27

▼

Kirchhein

8

Baekgard

4

▼

Pisani

9

⚽2

Andersen

7

Kaastrup

17

▼

Kubel

Manager: Morten Dahm Kjaergaard

37'▲E. Nissen←▼M. Kjolby

46'▲E. Egerton←▼M. Kirchheiner

64'▲K. Lunding←▼M. Kubel

64'▲A. Holvad←▼A. Pisani

75'▲M. de Claville Berthelsen←▼—

Aarhus Fremad substitutes

5Nissen11Lunding16Holvad20Hjaltason21Berthelsen23Andreasen24Thorsen28Egerton30Hojbjerg

Manager: Albert Rude

58'▲M. Doj←▼A. Norager

69'▲C. Palm←▼I. Tannander

69'▲J. Bjarnason←▼N. Morberg

82'▲J. Alfaro←▼E. Voufack

82'▲F. Moller←▼V. Westh

Kolding IF substitutes

5Leifsson8Alfaro12Moller14Palm15Bjarnason21Doj25Bossen27Shushman28Danko