Kokand-1912 1–2 Sogdiana: Result & Stats

Kokand-1912

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sogdiana

M. Khalmukhamedov 8' (pen)

K. Makharadze 63'

I. Nagaev 1'

7/30/2019

Super League · Round 15Markaziy Stadion (Qo'qon (Kokand))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Kokand-191241%

×Draw27%

Sogdiana33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kokand-1912Expected goals in this matchSogdiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.18

Kokand-1912

1.35

Sogdiana

1.18

Kokand-1912 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 102 away

1.30

creates per match

1.10

1.26

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Kokand-1912

1.30

Sogdiana

1.10

allows per match

Kokand-1912

1.26

Sogdiana

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kokand-1912+0.00on par

Sogdiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kokand-1912 ↓

Sogdiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kokand-1912 or draw

67%

Kokand-1912 or Sogdiana

73%

Draw or Sogdiana

59%

Winning margin

Kokand-1912 wins by 2+

19%

Sogdiana wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kokand-1912 1+ goals

74%

Kokand-1912 2+ goals

39%

Kokand-1912 3+ goals

15%

Sogdiana 1+ goals

69%

Sogdiana 2+ goals

33%

Sogdiana 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)

55%

Sogdiana (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kokand-1912 at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

Sogdiana away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.40 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kokand-1912 attack 1.30 + Sogdiana defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sogdiana attack 1.10 + Kokand-1912 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kokand-1912 scores more

41%

level

27%

Sogdiana scores more

33%

Kokand-1912 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kokand-1912 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

I. Nagaev

8'

M. KhalmukhamedovPenalty

46'

S. Djurabekov← J. Boltaboev

61'

K. Erkinov← D. Khasanov

63'

K. Makharadze

68'

I. Abdullaev← S. Norxonov

70'

T. Khakimov← S. Erkinov

82'

O. Khaydarov← K. Ruziyev

89'

S. Meliev← K. Makharadze

Kokand-1912

Sogdiana

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

61'▲K. Erkinov←▼D. Khasanov

70'▲T. Khakimov←▼S. Erkinov

82'▲O. Khaydarov←▼K. Ruziyev

Kokand-1912 substitutes

ErkinovKhakimovKhaydarovSamatovAbdukhamidovHasanovKarimov

Manager: U. Bakaev

46'▲S. Djurabekov←▼J. Boltaboev

68'▲I. Abdullaev←▼S. Norxonov

89'▲S. Meliev←▼K. Makharadze

Sogdiana substitutes

DjurabekovAbdullaevMelievKhasanovNurmatovAbdullayevRashidov

Super League: Kokand-1912 1–2 Sogdiana

Sogdiana beat Kokand-1912 2-1 in Super League on July 30, 2019.

Goals: I. Nagaev (1'), M. Khalmukhamedov (8' pen), K. Makharadze (63').

The match was played at Markaziy Stadion (Qo'qon (Kokand)).

Kokand-1912 vs Sogdiana — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Kokand-1912 1–2 Sogdiana