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Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep FK — League #203 2026

Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
R. Rivas 81'
S. Dursun 76'
D. Agyei 36'
2/15/2026League #203League #203 · Round 22Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kocaelispor70%
×Draw18%
Gaziantep FK11%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kocaelispor
2.17
Gaziantep FK
0.73

Kocaelispor creates 197% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Kocaelispor
1.67
Gaziantep FK
0.78

allows per match

Kocaelispor
0.67
Gaziantep FK
2.67

finishing

Kocaelispor+0.00on par
Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kocaelispor ↓

Gaziantep FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kocaelispor or draw
89%
Kocaelispor or Gaziantep FK
82%
Draw or Gaziantep FK
30%

Winning margin

Kocaelispor wins by 2+
46%
Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kocaelispor 1+ goals
89%
Kocaelispor 2+ goals
64%
Kocaelispor 3+ goals
36%
Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
52%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
17%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kocaelispor (draw refunded)
86%
Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kocaelispor at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kocaelispor attack 1.67 + Gaziantep FK defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Gaziantep FK attack 0.78 + Kocaelispor defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Kocaelispor scores more
70%
level
18%
Gaziantep FK scores more
11%

Kocaelispor at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Kocaelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
D. ChurlinovKocaelisporKocaelispor · F
8.5

Match Events

17'
Tayyip Talha Sanuç
36'
D. Agyei↳ M. Haidara
38'
K. Gassama← D. Dragus
45+3'
Bruno Petković
46'
S. Dursun← B. Petkovic
46'
K. Rodrigues← D. Sorescu
47'
Nazım Sangaré
52'
Kacper Kozłowski
58'
M. Kabasakal← O. Ozcicek
70'
Ahmet Oğuz
72'
D. Churlinov← T. Bingol
72'
R. Rivas← D. Agyei
75'
Massadio Haïdara
76'
S. Dursun↳ D. Churlinov
78'
Christophe Lungoyi
78'
M. Akmelek← A. Maxim
80'
S. Yalcin← H. Keita
81'
R. Rivas↳ D. Churlinov
85'
M. Cinan← M. Haidara
90+4'
Arda Kızıldağ
90'
Muhammet Akmelek

Possession

60%Kocaelispor

Shots

14Kocaelispor

Pass accuracy

53%Kocaelispor

Statistics

KocaelisporGaziantep
Overview
60%Possession40%
14Total Shots7
2.20Expected Goals (xG)0.65
4Corners2
25Fouls17
Shots
14Total Shots7
7On Target3
5Off Target3
2Blocked1
9Inside Box6
5Outside Box1
Passing
60%Possession40%
407Total Passes268
334Accurate Passes195
82%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
-0.63Goals Prevented-0.63
Discipline
25Fouls17
3Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Kocaelispor vs Gaziantep FK

Kocaelispor beat Gaziantep FK 3-0 in League #203 on February 15, 2026.

Goals: D. Agyei (36'), S. Dursun (76'), R. Rivas (81').

Kocaelispor controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu in Izmit.