Gaziantep FK 2–0 Kocaelispor: Result & Stats

Gaziantep FK

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kocaelispor

Y. Kabadayi 79'

K. Kozlowski 75'

9/14/2025

League #203 · Round 5Kalyon Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Gaziantep FK34%

×Draw26%

Kocaelispor39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gaziantep FKExpected goals in this matchKocaelispor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.35

Gaziantep FK

1.25

Kocaelispor

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.70

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Gaziantep FK

1.00

Kocaelispor

1.00

allows per match

Gaziantep FK

1.70

Kocaelispor

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Kocaelispor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gaziantep FK ↓

Kocaelispor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Gaziantep FK or draw

61%

Gaziantep FK or Kocaelispor

74%

Draw or Kocaelispor

66%

Winning margin

Gaziantep FK wins by 2+

15%

Kocaelispor wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Gaziantep FK 1+ goals

71%

Gaziantep FK 2+ goals

36%

Gaziantep FK 3+ goals

13%

Kocaelispor 1+ goals

74%

Kocaelispor 2+ goals

39%

Kocaelispor 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)

47%

Kocaelispor (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gaziantep FK at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Kocaelispor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gaziantep FK attack 1.00 + Kocaelispor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kocaelispor attack 1.00 + Gaziantep FK defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gaziantep FK scores more

34%

level

26%

Kocaelispor scores more

39%

Kocaelispor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kocaelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

K. Kozlowski

Gaziantep FK · M

8.2

Match Events

20'

23'

38'

43'

46'

B. Ndiaye← O. Ozcicek

46'

M. Cinan← M. Haidara

46'

D. Agyei← D. Churlinov

53'

Tayyip Talha Sanuç

65'

A. Dijksteel← S. Yalcin

66'

Show← J. Nonge

67'

Hrvoje Smolčić

70'

S. Guler← T. T. Sanuc

70'

Y. Kabadayi← C. Lungoyi

75'

K. Kozlowski↳ B. Ndiaye

79'

82'

82'

82'

84'

89'

D. Camara← D. Sorescu

90+2'

Can Keleş

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GaziantepKocaelispor

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots3

1.52Expected Goals (xG)0.20

3Corners6

20Fouls20

Shots

14Total Shots3

5On Target2

6Off Target0

3Blocked1

8Inside Box1

6Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

324Total Passes343

252Accurate Passes259

78%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.15Goals Prevented-0.15

Discipline

20Fouls20

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1