Kocaelispor 1–0 Galatasaray: Result & Stats

Kocaelispor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Galatasaray

D. Agyei 45'

11/9/2025

League #203 · Round 12Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kocaelispor30%

×Draw28%

Galatasaray42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KocaelisporExpected goals in this matchGalatasaray

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.31

Kocaelispor

1.06

Galatasaray

1.31

Galatasaray creates 24% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 32 away

1.25

creates per match

1.88

0.75

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Kocaelispor

1.25

Galatasaray

1.88

allows per match

Kocaelispor

0.75

Galatasaray

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kocaelispor+0.00on par

Galatasaray+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kocaelispor ↓

Galatasaray →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kocaelispor or draw

58%

Kocaelispor or Galatasaray

72%

Draw or Galatasaray

70%

Winning margin

Kocaelispor wins by 2+

12%

Galatasaray wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Kocaelispor 1+ goals

65%

Kocaelispor 2+ goals

29%

Kocaelispor 3+ goals

9%

Galatasaray 1+ goals

73%

Galatasaray 2+ goals

38%

Galatasaray 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kocaelispor (draw refunded)

42%

Galatasaray (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kocaelispor at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Galatasaray away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kocaelispor attack 1.25 + Galatasaray defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Galatasaray attack 1.88 + Kocaelispor defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kocaelispor scores more

30%

level

28%

Galatasaray scores more

42%

Galatasaray at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Jovanovic

Kocaelispor · G

7.7

Match Events

28'

38'

45'

46'

47'

64'

64'

Gabriel Sara← L. Torreira

72'

Show← H. Keita

72'

C. Keles← S. Dursun

87'

Victor OsimhenGoal cancelled

90'

O. Syrota← D. Agyei

90+6'

D. Churlinov← K. Linetty

90'

K. Ayhan← D. Sanchez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KocaelisporGalatasaray

Overview

34%Possession66%

9Total Shots12

0.67Expected Goals (xG)0.63

1Corners7

13Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots12

3On Target3

5Off Target6

1Blocked3

5Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

34%Possession66%

277Total Passes505

205Accurate Passes425

74%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.38Goals Prevented-0.38

Discipline

13Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2