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Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor — League #203 2026

Galatasaray
Galatasaray
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor
L. Sane 30'
B. Petkovic 72'
4/12/2026League #203League #203 · Round 29Rams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Galatasaray61%
×Draw21%
Kocaelispor18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galatasaray
1.98
Kocaelispor
0.97

Galatasaray creates 104% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 4 away

creates per match

Galatasaray
2.46
Kocaelispor
1.00

allows per match

Galatasaray
0.93
Kocaelispor
1.50

finishing

Galatasaray+0.00on par
Kocaelispor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Kocaelispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw
82%
Galatasaray or Kocaelispor
79%
Draw or Kocaelispor
39%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+
37%
Kocaelispor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals
86%
Galatasaray 2+ goals
59%
Galatasaray 3+ goals
31%
Kocaelispor 1+ goals
62%
Kocaelispor 2+ goals
25%
Kocaelispor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)
77%
Kocaelispor (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.93 · 28 matches

Kocaelispor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 2.46 + Kocaelispor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.98

Kocaelispor attack 1.00 + Galatasaray defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Galatasaray scores more
61%
level
21%
Kocaelispor scores more
18%

Galatasaray at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. SaneGalatasarayGalatasaray · M
7.9

Match Events

23'
Joseph Nonge
30'
L. Sane↳ I. Jakobs
46'
M. Haidara← J. Nonge
53'
T. Bingol← M. Susoho
64'
B. Petkovic← S. Dursun
64'
C. Keles← R. Rivas
66'
N. Lang← R. Sallai
67'
W. Singo← S. Boey
72'
B. Petkovic↳ T. Bingol
75'
M. Lemina← L. Torreira
75'
Y. Akgun← I. Gundogan
80'
M. Icardi← Gabriel Sara
87'
D. Churlinov← D. Agyei

Possession

67%Galatasaray

Shots

13Galatasaray

Pass accuracy

54%Galatasaray

Statistics

GalatasarayKocaelispor
Overview
67%Possession33%
13Total Shots8
1.25Expected Goals (xG)0.46
4Corners1
15Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots8
6On Target3
4Off Target4
3Blocked1
7Inside Box7
6Outside Box1
Passing
67%Possession33%
609Total Passes292
530Accurate Passes219
87%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
-0.17Goals Prevented-0.17
Discipline
15Fouls13
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Galatasaray vs Kocaelispor

Galatasaray and Kocaelispor drew 1-1 in League #203 on April 12, 2026.

Goals: L. Sane (30'), B. Petkovic (72').

Galatasaray controlled possession (67%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Rams Park in Istanbul.