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Kocaelispor vs Beykoz Anadolu — 1. Lig 2018

Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Beykoz Anadolu
Beykoz Anadolu
9/24/20211. Lig1. Lig · Round 7Kocaeli Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Kocaelispor47%
×Draw25%
Beykoz Anadolu28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kocaelispor
1.59
Beykoz Anadolu
1.16

Kocaelispor creates 37% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 69 away

creates per match

Kocaelispor
1.72
Beykoz Anadolu
1.13

allows per match

Kocaelispor
1.19
Beykoz Anadolu
1.46

finishing

Kocaelispor+0.00on par
Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kocaelispor ↓

Beykoz Anadolu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kocaelispor or draw
72%
Kocaelispor or Beykoz Anadolu
75%
Draw or Beykoz Anadolu
53%

Winning margin

Kocaelispor wins by 2+
24%
Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kocaelispor 1+ goals
80%
Kocaelispor 2+ goals
47%
Kocaelispor 3+ goals
21%
Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals
69%
Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals
32%
Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kocaelispor (draw refunded)
63%
Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kocaelispor at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.19 · 54 matches

Beykoz Anadolu away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.46 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kocaelispor attack 1.72 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.59

Beykoz Anadolu attack 1.13 + Kocaelispor defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kocaelispor scores more
47%
level
25%
Beykoz Anadolu scores more
28%

Kocaelispor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kocaelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Kocaelispor 1–0 Beykoz Anadolu

Kocaelispor beat Beykoz Anadolu 1-0 in 1. Lig on September 24, 2021.

The match was played at Kocaeli Stadyumu in Kocaeli.