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Beykoz Anadolu vs Kocaelispor — 1. Lig 2018

Beykoz Anadolu
Beykoz Anadolu
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor
10/21/20231. Lig1. Lig · Round 915 Temmuz Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Beykoz Anadolu36%
×Draw27%
Kocaelispor37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beykoz Anadolu
1.25
Kocaelispor
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 55 away

creates per match

Beykoz Anadolu
1.24
Kocaelispor
1.16

allows per match

Beykoz Anadolu
1.36
Kocaelispor
1.25

finishing

Beykoz Anadolu+0.00on par
Kocaelispor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beykoz Anadolu ↓

Kocaelispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Beykoz Anadolu or draw
63%
Beykoz Anadolu or Kocaelispor
73%
Draw or Kocaelispor
64%

Winning margin

Beykoz Anadolu wins by 2+
16%
Kocaelispor wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Beykoz Anadolu 1+ goals
71%
Beykoz Anadolu 2+ goals
36%
Beykoz Anadolu 3+ goals
13%
Kocaelispor 1+ goals
72%
Kocaelispor 2+ goals
36%
Kocaelispor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Beykoz Anadolu (draw refunded)
50%
Kocaelispor (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beykoz Anadolu at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.36 · 70 matches

Kocaelispor away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beykoz Anadolu attack 1.24 + Kocaelispor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kocaelispor attack 1.16 + Beykoz Anadolu defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Beykoz Anadolu scores more
36%
level
27%
Kocaelispor scores more
37%

Kocaelispor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Kocaelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beykoz Anadolu vs Kocaelispor

Kocaelispor beat Beykoz Anadolu 2-1 in 1. Lig on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at 15 Temmuz Stadı in İstanbul.