Kocaelispor 0–1 Beşiktaş: Result & Stats

Kocaelispor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Beşiktaş

2/28/2026

League #203 · Round 24Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kocaelispor43%

×Draw31%

Beşiktaş27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KocaelisporExpected goals in this matchBeşiktaş

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.83

Kocaelispor

1.13

Beşiktaş

0.83

Kocaelispor creates 36% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

1.25

creates per match

0.92

0.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Kocaelispor

1.25

Beşiktaş

0.92

allows per match

Kocaelispor

0.75

Beşiktaş

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kocaelispor+0.00on par

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kocaelispor ↓

Beşiktaş →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Kocaelispor or draw

73%

Kocaelispor or Beşiktaş

69%

Draw or Beşiktaş

57%

Winning margin

Kocaelispor wins by 2+

18%

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kocaelispor 1+ goals

68%

Kocaelispor 2+ goals

31%

Kocaelispor 3+ goals

11%

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

56%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

20%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kocaelispor (draw refunded)

61%

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kocaelispor at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kocaelispor attack 1.25 + Beşiktaş defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Beşiktaş attack 0.92 + Kocaelispor defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kocaelispor scores more

43%

level

31%

Beşiktaş scores more

27%

Kocaelispor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kocaelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff