Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor — League #203 2026

Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor
9/29/2025League #203League #203 · Round 7Tupras Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Beşiktaş52%
×Draw24%
Kocaelispor23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beşiktaş
1.68
Kocaelispor
1.04

Beşiktaş creates 62% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Beşiktaş
1.55
Kocaelispor
1.00

allows per match

Beşiktaş
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.80

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par
Kocaelispor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Kocaelispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw
77%
Beşiktaş or Kocaelispor
76%
Draw or Kocaelispor
48%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+
28%
Kocaelispor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals
81%
Beşiktaş 2+ goals
50%
Beşiktaş 3+ goals
24%
Kocaelispor 1+ goals
65%
Kocaelispor 2+ goals
28%
Kocaelispor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)
69%
Kocaelispor (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Kocaelispor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.55 + Kocaelispor defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.68

Kocaelispor attack 1.00 + Beşiktaş defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Beşiktaş scores more
52%
level
24%
Kocaelispor scores more
23%

Beşiktaş at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor

Beşiktaş beat Kocaelispor 3-1 in League #203 on September 29, 2025.

The match was played at Tupras Stadium in Istanbul.