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Kober vs Hay Al Wadi — Sudani Premier League 2025

Kober
Kober
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hay Al Wadi
Hay Al Wadi
1/16/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 2Kober Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kober32%
×Draw31%
Hay Al Wadi38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kober
0.95
Hay Al Wadi
1.06

Hay Al Wadi creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kober
0.55
Hay Al Wadi
0.94

allows per match

Kober
1.18
Hay Al Wadi
1.35

finishing

Kober+0.00on par
Hay Al Wadi+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kober ↓

Hay Al Wadi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kober or draw
62%
Kober or Hay Al Wadi
69%
Draw or Hay Al Wadi
68%

Winning margin

Kober wins by 2+
11%
Hay Al Wadi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kober 1+ goals
61%
Kober 2+ goals
25%
Kober 3+ goals
7%
Hay Al Wadi 1+ goals
65%
Hay Al Wadi 2+ goals
29%
Hay Al Wadi 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kober (draw refunded)
46%
Hay Al Wadi (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kober at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Hay Al Wadi away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kober attack 0.55 + Hay Al Wadi defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.95

Hay Al Wadi attack 0.94 + Kober defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kober scores more
32%
level
31%
Hay Al Wadi scores more
38%

Hay Al Wadi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hay Al Wadi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kober vs Hay Al Wadi

Hay Al Wadi beat Kober 2-1 in Sudani Premier League on January 16, 2025.

The match was played at Kober Stadium in Khartoum North.