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Hay Al Wadi vs Kober — Sudani Premier League 2025

Hay Al Wadi
Hay Al Wadi
FT
1 – 0
Kober
Kober
6/14/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 18Altahrir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Hay Al Wadi43%
×Draw28%
Kober28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hay Al Wadi
1.27
Kober
0.96

Hay Al Wadi creates 32% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 16 away

creates per match

Hay Al Wadi
1.04
Kober
0.69

allows per match

Hay Al Wadi
1.23
Kober
1.50

finishing

Hay Al Wadi+0.00on par
Kober+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hay Al Wadi ↓

Kober →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hay Al Wadi or draw
72%
Hay Al Wadi or Kober
72%
Draw or Kober
57%

Winning margin

Hay Al Wadi wins by 2+
20%
Kober wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hay Al Wadi 1+ goals
72%
Hay Al Wadi 2+ goals
36%
Hay Al Wadi 3+ goals
14%
Kober 1+ goals
62%
Kober 2+ goals
25%
Kober 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hay Al Wadi (draw refunded)
61%
Kober (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hay Al Wadi at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

Kober away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hay Al Wadi attack 1.04 + Kober defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Kober attack 0.69 + Hay Al Wadi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hay Al Wadi scores more
43%
level
28%
Kober scores more
28%

Hay Al Wadi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hay Al Wadi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hay Al Wadi vs Kober

Hay Al Wadi beat Kober 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on June 14, 2022.

The match was played at Altahrir Stadium in Khartoum North.