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KMKM vs Kedus Giorgis — CAF Champions League 2019

KMKM
KMKM
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis
8/18/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundAzam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

KMKM32%
×Draw27%
Kedus Giorgis41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KMKM
1.13
Kedus Giorgis
1.33

Kedus Giorgis creates 18% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

KMKM
0.25
Kedus Giorgis
0.67

allows per match

KMKM
2.00
Kedus Giorgis
2.00

finishing

KMKM+0.00on par
Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMKM ↓

Kedus Giorgis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

KMKM or draw
59%
KMKM or Kedus Giorgis
73%
Draw or Kedus Giorgis
68%

Winning margin

KMKM wins by 2+
13%
Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

KMKM 1+ goals
68%
KMKM 2+ goals
31%
KMKM 3+ goals
11%
Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals
74%
Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals
38%
Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

KMKM (draw refunded)
43%
Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMKM at home — creates 0.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Kedus Giorgis away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMKM attack 0.25 + Kedus Giorgis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Kedus Giorgis attack 0.67 + KMKM defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

KMKM scores more
32%
level
27%
Kedus Giorgis scores more
41%

Kedus Giorgis at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: KMKM 1–2 Kedus Giorgis

Kedus Giorgis beat KMKM 2-1 in CAF Champions League on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Azam Complex Stadium in Mbagala.