Kedus Giorgis 3–1 KMKM: Result & Stats

Kedus Giorgis

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

KMKM

8/27/2023

CAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundAbebe Bikila Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kedus Giorgis65%

×Draw19%

KMKM15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kedus GiorgisExpected goals in this matchKMKM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.96

Kedus Giorgis

2.21

KMKM

0.96

Kedus Giorgis creates 130% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

0.25

1.67

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Kedus Giorgis

1.67

KMKM

0.25

allows per match

Kedus Giorgis

1.67

KMKM

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par

KMKM+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kedus Giorgis ↓

KMKM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kedus Giorgis or draw

85%

Kedus Giorgis or KMKM

81%

Draw or KMKM

35%

Winning margin

Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+

42%

KMKM wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals

89%

Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals

65%

Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals

38%

KMKM 1+ goals

62%

KMKM 2+ goals

25%

KMKM 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)

81%

KMKM (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kedus Giorgis at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

KMKM away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.67 + KMKM defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.21

KMKM attack 0.25 + Kedus Giorgis defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kedus Giorgis scores more

65%

level

19%

KMKM scores more

15%

Kedus Giorgis at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff