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KMC vs Simba — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

KMC
KMC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Simba
Simba
12/23/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 14Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

KMC23%
×Draw27%
Simba50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KMC
0.88
Simba
1.42

Simba creates 61% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 111 away

creates per match

KMC
1.24
Simba
1.72

allows per match

KMC
1.11
Simba
0.51

finishing

KMC+0.00on par
Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMC ↓

Simba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

KMC or draw
50%
KMC or Simba
73%
Draw or Simba
77%

Winning margin

KMC wins by 2+
8%
Simba wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

KMC 1+ goals
59%
KMC 2+ goals
22%
KMC 3+ goals
6%
Simba 1+ goals
76%
Simba 2+ goals
41%
Simba 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

KMC (draw refunded)
32%
Simba (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMC at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 112 matches

Simba away — creates 1.72, concedes 0.51 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMC attack 1.24 + Simba defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.88

Simba attack 1.72 + KMC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

KMC scores more
23%
level
27%
Simba scores more
50%

Simba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KMC 2 – 2 Simba

KMC and Simba drew 2-2 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at Azam Complex Stadium in Mbagala.