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KMC vs Mashujaa — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

KMC
KMC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Mashujaa
Mashujaa
12/2/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 11Uhuru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

KMC45%
×Draw28%
Mashujaa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KMC
1.29
Mashujaa
0.91

KMC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 45 away

creates per match

KMC
1.24
Mashujaa
0.71

allows per match

KMC
1.11
Mashujaa
1.33

finishing

KMC+0.00on par
Mashujaa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMC ↓

Mashujaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

KMC or draw
74%
KMC or Mashujaa
72%
Draw or Mashujaa
55%

Winning margin

KMC wins by 2+
21%
Mashujaa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

KMC 1+ goals
72%
KMC 2+ goals
37%
KMC 3+ goals
14%
Mashujaa 1+ goals
60%
Mashujaa 2+ goals
23%
Mashujaa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

KMC (draw refunded)
63%
Mashujaa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMC at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 112 matches

Mashujaa away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMC attack 1.24 + Mashujaa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mashujaa attack 0.71 + KMC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KMC scores more
45%
level
28%
Mashujaa scores more
26%

KMC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KMC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: KMC 3–2 Mashujaa

KMC beat Mashujaa 3-2 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Uhuru Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.