KMC 2–0 Kagera Sugar: Result & Stats

KMC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kagera Sugar

3/9/2023

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 25Uhuru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

KMC44%

×Draw29%

Kagera Sugar27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KMCExpected goals in this matchKagera Sugar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.93

KMC

1.27

Kagera Sugar

0.93

KMC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 96 away

1.24

creates per match

0.75

1.11

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

KMC

1.24

Kagera Sugar

0.75

allows per match

KMC

1.11

Kagera Sugar

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KMC+0.00on par

Kagera Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMC ↓

Kagera Sugar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

KMC or draw

73%

KMC or Kagera Sugar

71%

Draw or Kagera Sugar

56%

Winning margin

KMC wins by 2+

20%

Kagera Sugar wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

KMC 1+ goals

72%

KMC 2+ goals

36%

KMC 3+ goals

14%

Kagera Sugar 1+ goals

61%

Kagera Sugar 2+ goals

24%

Kagera Sugar 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

KMC (draw refunded)

62%

Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMC at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 112 matches

Kagera Sugar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.31 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMC attack 1.24 + Kagera Sugar defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Kagera Sugar attack 0.75 + KMC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

KMC scores more

44%

level

29%

Kagera Sugar scores more

27%

KMC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "KMC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff