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Kagera Sugar vs KMC — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Kagera Sugar
Kagera Sugar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KMC
KMC
2/26/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 22Kaitaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Kagera Sugar45%
×Draw31%
KMC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kagera Sugar
1.17
KMC
0.76

Kagera Sugar creates 54% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 112 away

creates per match

Kagera Sugar
0.97
KMC
0.59

allows per match

Kagera Sugar
0.92
KMC
1.37

finishing

Kagera Sugar+0.00on par
KMC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kagera Sugar ↓

KMC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kagera Sugar or draw
76%
Kagera Sugar or KMC
69%
Draw or KMC
55%

Winning margin

Kagera Sugar wins by 2+
20%
KMC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kagera Sugar 1+ goals
69%
Kagera Sugar 2+ goals
33%
Kagera Sugar 3+ goals
11%
KMC 1+ goals
53%
KMC 2+ goals
18%
KMC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)
66%
KMC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kagera Sugar at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.92 · 95 matches

KMC away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.37 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kagera Sugar attack 0.97 + KMC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

KMC attack 0.59 + Kagera Sugar defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kagera Sugar scores more
45%
level
31%
KMC scores more
24%

Kagera Sugar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kagera Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Kagera Sugar 0–0 KMC

Kagera Sugar and KMC drew 0-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 26, 2025.

The match was played at Kaitaba Stadium in Bukoba.