KMC vs Biashara United — Ligi kuu Bara 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 51+ matches
KMC45%
Biashara United25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
KMC creates 45% more chances
Season form · 112 home / 51 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under66
- Over34
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
KMC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
KMC at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 112 matches
Biashara United away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
KMC attack 1.24 + Biashara United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22
Biashara United attack 0.57 + KMC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.84
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
KMC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "KMC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Simba
Azam
Young Africans
Namungo
Polisi Tanzania
Coastal Union
Kagera Sugar
JKT Tanzania
Tanzania PrisonsBiashara United
Ruvu ShootingKMC
Lipuli
Mwadui
Mtibwa Sugar
Mbao
Mbeya City
Alliance
Ndanda
Singida UnitedIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
KMC host Biashara United on Tuesday, 20 April 2021 at 11:00. The match is part of the Ligi kuu Bara 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: KMC vs Biashara United
KMC and Biashara United drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 20, 2021.
The match was played at Uhuru Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.